Asteroid 2024 YR4: A Potential Threat in 2032.


Astronomers have recently discovered a 196-foot asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, with a 1-in-83 chance of striking Earth in December 2032. While the probability of impact is still relatively low, it has raised concerns among scientists and has been placed on the European Space Agency's NEO impact Risk List and NASA's Sentry Risk Table.

Here's what we know:

  • Size: The asteroid is estimated to be around 196 feet (60 meters) wide, roughly half the size of a football field.
  • Distance: Currently, it is about 27 million miles away from Earth.
  • Impact Probability: The current estimated chance of impact is 1 in 83, which is considered significant enough to warrant close monitoring.
  • Potential Impact Location: The initial impact corridor is estimated to run from South America across the Atlantic to South Africa.

What's next:

  • Continued Observation: Astronomers will continue to track the asteroid's trajectory and refine their calculations.
  • 2028 Close Approach: In 2028, the asteroid will make a closer approach to Earth, providing scientists with a better opportunity to study its characteristics and further refine impact predictions.


While the situation warrants attention, it's important to remember that the probability of impact is still relatively low. The most likely outcome is a close approach that misses Earth. However, continued monitoring and research are crucial to ensure our planet's safety.

Would you like to know more about asteroid impacts, planetary defense strategies, or the Torino Scale used to assess impact risks?

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